Pufferfish

Down Goes Dubai

This might actually be bigger news than what Tiger Woods and his penis have been up to. What it could mean:

You have to remember that the Great Depression only became “great,” that is, global, when an obscure Austrian bank went under in 1931, and set off a massive financial explosion around Europe. Capitalism is an irrational system that is often full of unpleasant surprises. The collapse of Dubai World may turn out to be nothing. But it could also turn out be one of those unpleasant surprises.

What it definitely means:

The complexities involved in modern finance sometimes make what is going on seem inscrutable and hard to understand. Economists consequently argue endlessly about the real causes of the global financial crash in language that they layman has a difficult time deciphering. But when you look more closely at the flashpoints of disaster, whether in Dubai or in New York, the real problems seem to be caused by bad decisions by stubborn executives, whether blinded by greed or stupidity or the satisfaction of excess.

And here's a big number to noodle: Dubai's exposure ($59 billion) is less than 1/10th of Lehman's ($600 billion) at the time the investment bank collapsed. Jeebus.

Legacy Empire

I'm struggling to see this as a gift Obama should accept. Bush's wars could destroy Obama as they destroyed The Decider. Thinking a lot doesn't do much good if the policy is wrong. Before we proceed it should be stipulated that both wars are unwinnable as originally described. Neither Iraq nor Afghanistan will be "normal" functioning societies, by Western standards, in our lifetime. And so we're left with this:

Can a president declare a war must be won but not proclaim he'll wage that war for as many years as is necessary to succeed?

Add to the enigma wrapped in a shit burger is that we're tossing away more blood and treasure abroad while the president talks about cutting spending at home. Either we are bankrupt or we aren't. Pretending money is free when national security is involved is the kind of sense that only makes sense to the face of rotten Washington. Committing this country to more war in Afghanistan must include an honest estimate on funding. Where is it coming from? And if we don't need to worry about paying for it then why do we need to fret about the price tag on cap and trade? If only we bottom-lined military cost in the same manner we pinch pennies over health care reform:

You want empire? Then say so and get on with it - with far more forces, and massive cuts in domestic spending to rebuild thankless Muslim population centers thousands of miles from home for decades into the future.

You do not want empire? Then leave.

But the decision has been made. Obama has decided to brush off his base and run into the wanton arms of neocons who will turn on him at the first opportune moment. And this post from Marc Ambinder makes me wonder if the hold-up has been not in crafting an exit plan, but in fine-tuning a sales pitch:

An official said that Obama plans to try explain the interconnection between the the stability of Pakistan and the nexus of terror in Afghanistan. An explanation that the American people would accept has proven elusive.

That last line sounds eerily like the Iraq War run-up in 2002. Remember: You don't roll-out a new product in August.

Down Goes Huckabee

Sarah Palin just saw her biggest rival for the social conservative vote flame out:

Nine years ago in Arkansas, The Seattle Times reported, Mr. Clemmons was released from prison after Gov. Mike Huckabee commuted his lengthy prison sentence, over the protests of prosecutors. Late Sunday night, Mr. Huckabee’s political action committee released a statement saying that “a series of failures in the criminal justice system in both Arkansas and Washington State” would be to blame if Mr. Clemmons were found responsible for the shootings.

And this is exactly why politicians hate commuting a sentence, never mind the merits. Better safe than sorry. For their political careers, that is.

The Way The World Works

Or at least how the world's leading power operates:

Last fall, when Lloyd Blankfein’s bonus was at stake, the economy was an urgent international emergency and no limit was placed on how much money could be borrowed to stave off The Unimaginable. But now, when unemployment in the general population is soaring and the middle class is quickly turning into an underclass, suddenly we’re putting on our tweed jackets and talking in professorial tones about the dangers of deficits and fiscal irresponsibility. [...]

Obama’s handlers surely know that they’re not going to win so much as one teabagger vote by shaving a few decimal points off this or that stimulus program. They just don’t want to admit what the plan is, which is to save one group of asses, and not another.

But the rub is that this seems to come at a political cost. As Rove has often noted, people don't vote on debt. Obama's going to lose a lot more votes because of crappy unemployment numbers than he's going to gain with improving deficit projections. It's almost like they're trying for another 1937.

What's Your Internet Vice?

Besides this blog, Google Reader is no doubt mine, but it wasn't available:

is a vodka cranberry

Social lubricant used to enhance still developing social etiquette. You're aware of your uninhibited actions, but comforted by the built in safety net of excuses.

The Rule Of Projection

It's often safe to assume that whatever Republicans are complaining about they are guilty of themselves. So it holds with the lunacy over word count, with Republicans trying desperately to link the literal size of the health care reform bill to the figurative idea of big government and overspending:

The second longest bill to appear in Congress over the past 10 years was authored by Republican Rep. Don Young [R, AK-1]. It’s a mere 68 words shorter than the House health care bill. Of the 10 longest bills in the past ten years, five were written by Democrats and five were written by Republicans.

And then there's Bush's No Child Left Behind bill, which came in as the fifth wordiest piece of legislation over the last decade. Of course, don't expect facts to get in the way of a ridiculous argument. 

Wednesday Explains Thanksgiving

Wanted: New Material

I'm going to be on the road for the holiday so posting will be light over the next few days. But before heading for the land of milk and honey, I wanted to drop this humdinger:

Did you know that the youngest person to have cast a ballot for Reagan in 1984 is now 43 years old? And that, by 2012, that person will be 46?

Bitter Betty

Peter Beinart takes a look at why Joe Lieberman--long a pro-welfare and pro-warfare moderate who regularly received "nearly perfect scores from the American Public Health Association, which backs a single-payer health-care system"--is happily trying to sink the public option:

Because he’s bitter. According to former staffers and associates, he was upset by his dismal showing in the 2004 Democratic presidential primary. And he was enraged by the tepid support he got from many party leaders in 2006, when he lost the Democratic primary to an anti-war activist and won reelection as an independent. Gradually, this personal alienation has eaten away at his liberal domestic views. His staff has grown markedly more conservative in recent years, and his closest friends in Congress are now Republicans John McCain and Lindsey Graham. For Lieberman, the personal has become political, and it has pushed him further to the right.

Except that this bill has plenty for conservatives to like. Just ask Olympia Snowe. Or Chuck Grassley.

Second Guessing

The question about reconciliation can be viewed through two prisms: a) Democrats are incredible wimps unable to muscle legislation through while beating back GOP fearmongering or b) Democrats are rightly giving deference to the established order of things while trying mightily to bring aboard a recalcitrant opposition party and pacify objections from doctors and insurance and pharmaceutical companies. I go back and forth on what I'd prefer to see happen. But given the complexity of our health care system it's ridiculous to think reform is comparable to cutting taxes, which turns every Wall St. lobbyist into a clapping seal. Obama isn't merely fighting the GOP. He's also locked into the equivalent of a land war in Asia with the medical industry complex, and everyone knows that's not something you want to get involved in. Anyway, we are where we are:

I once heard an activist say that leadership is the process of managing your constituency's disappointment. If that's accurate, then the next few months are going to offer ample opportunities for leadership.