With a new poll out showing Olympia Snowe would get crushed in a primary by a conservative challenger, it might be time to give an assist on health care reform before switching parties: I don’t know whether these results are “surprising” or not, but I think
they ought to change our understanding of the prospects of
bipartisanship in health reform. This means that when you’re thinking
about whether Snowe will support a bill or not, the issue ultimately
comes down to not triggers versus non-triggers, or employer mandates
versus free rider fees, but whether Snowe wants to remain a Republican
or not. Based on this polling, a Snowe who votes for a comprehensive
health care overhaul is basically not going to be viable as a GOP
primary candidate. Conversely, a Snowe who votes for comprehensive
health reform and switches parties would remain a very popular general
election candidate with a safe seat.
With the Stupak amendment closing a door to reform, it looks like the GOP base in Maine could open a window.
