Pufferfish

The Big One?

If only Althouse was right:

Rush Limbaugh has said on his show many times that once the government runs health care, there is a threat that life-or-death decisions will be made based on politics, and people will worry that if they criticize the government or espouse the wrong opinions decisions will go against them.

Then again, maybe Rush is eying the estate tax loophole in 2010...

Then And Now

The Bush years:

Even beyond the immediate political manipulation there was always a drive to push the country back into a 'high-fear' climate, with a presidential statements, always with some new leaked intel to dramatize the threat, even what you might call the iconography of terror -- color coded threat levels and the like.

But that isn't totally right:

Eight years ago, "a terrorist bomber's attempt to blow up a transatlantic airliner was thwarted by a group of passengers, an incident that revealed some gaping holes in airline security just a few months after the attacks of September 11. But it was six days before President George W. Bush, then on vacation, made any public remarks about the so-called 'shoe bomber,' Richard Reid, and there were virtually no complaints from the press or any opposition Democrats that his response was sluggish or inadequate."

Obviously the Bush administration used terror threats as a political weapon. It's a convenient extension of the conservative worldview which sees aggressive grandstanding and heightened anxiety as a genuine strength. Issuing a threat warning was also a form of foreplay for Dick Cheney. The common thread between the Shoe Bomber and the Underpants Bomber is that both administrations avoided a terrorist attack on their watch through sheer luck. Our best defense was operator error. Because that's clear, neither administration could make a claim to competence or control. So the attacks were spun as non-events. That's the expected reaction by the Obama folks, who downplay everything related to terrorism ("Keep Calm And Carry On" might as well be the mantra, as Marshall notes). For the Bush administration, the Shoe Bomber was a terrorism threat that couldn't be used for political gain. But this one is on Obama's watch. Thus the silence then and the furor now, with the upshot being the GOP will always play the fear card—except when it can't.

Shoot Now, Aim Later

After a mini-blogging Sabbatical that coincided with the news that some swarthy yocal blew his balls off on a flight into Detroit (and who hasn't contemplated that when faced with landing on holiday in America's Beirut?) along with word that the Florida Gators coach was getting the vapors from Timmy Tebow's looming induction onto a CFL roster not near you, I came home to find Christmas cheer isn't doing anything to deter the right from indulging in unhealthy levels of stupidity. (Side note: a few days of not reading blogs is a detox we should all indulge in.) In fact, a dash of failed terrorism—cut with scenes of Obama playing golf instead of minding his place and caddying—mixed with a bit too much quality family time, seems to have turned up the unhinged obnoxiousness dial. We're at Orange on the wingnut threat level. This doesn't bode well for 2010:

You have to wonder if there’s a point at which these bloggers and Fox News will feel ashamed of themselves for spreading such deliberate falsehoods. They just fall in line like mindless parrots and repeat this stuff without even bothering to check if it’s true.

You actually don't have to wonder. Shame is for the weak. But at least this epic take-down of David Brooks' lame attempt to portray Obama as a Christian Soldier lifted my spirits:

Brooks is a perfect example of the kind of spineless Beltway geek we always see beating the war drum at times like these. It’s because nebbishly little dorks like Brooks and Paul Wolfowitz and David Frum got their books dumped in high school that we end up dropping daisy cutters on Afghan sheep herds and shipping working class American kids halfway around the world to get their nuts blown off. That sounds like a simplistic explanation, but anyone who doesn’t have a keen ear for the pencil-pusher’s eternal quest for macho cred is going to have a hard time understanding Washington politics. Brooks’s columns have always been the easiest way to take the pulse of that particular dynamic, and it sure seems now that bureaucratic momentum for intervention and more intervention is re-inflating the chests of these Beltway generals.

There's really only one trick left if Obama wants to placate Republicans: gratuitous dick swinging.

Crazy Train

It once was conventional wisdom that Alan Greenspan was the smartest man alive:

And this brings us to Alan Greenspan, whom I've known for over 50 years and who I regarded as one of the best young business economists. Townsend-Greenspan was his company. But the trouble is that he had been an Ayn Rander. You can take the boy out of the cult but you can't take the cult out of the boy. He actually had instruction, probably pinned on the wall: "Nothing from this office should go forth which discredits the capitalist system. Greed is good."

Not that we're showing any inclination of learning from our mistakes. (I'm finding it difficult to write this post while saluting Time Magazine with a double middle finger salute.) Here's Greenspan's disciple in May, 2007:

"Importantly, we see no serious broad spillover to banks or thrift institutions from the problems in the subprime market," Bernanke said. "The troubled lenders, for the most part, have not been institutions with federally insured deposits."

He was wrong. Five of the 10 largest subprime lenders during the previous year were banks regulated by the Fed. Even as Bernanke spoke, the spillover from subprime lending was driving the banking industry into a historic crisis that some firms would not survive. And the upheaval would shove the economy into recession.

And he was wrong again:

The Fed let Citigroup make vast investments without setting aside enough money to cover its eventual losses. The company would need more than $45 billion in federal aid.

The Fed watched as National City made billions of dollars in subprime loans that were never repaid. Regulators would arrange its sale to a rival, PNC.

And the Fed approved Wachovia's purchase of a California mortgage lender shortly before California mortgage lenders led the nation into recession. Wachovia, on the verge of collapse, was bought by Wells Fargo with government help.

And again while serving on the Fed's Board of Governors:

The dangers of securitization were underscored the very next month by the collapse of energy giant Enron, which had abused the same accounting rules to conceal losses from investors. But in 2003, the board that writes accounting rules backed away from planned reforms after banks protested that Enron was an exception. The Fed sided with the industry, telling the board that securitization was safe and important to the economy, according to people familiar with the deliberations.

And how about one more time:

In January 2005, National City's chief economist had delivered a prescient warning to the Fed's board of governors: An increasingly overvalued housing market posed a threat to the broader economy, not to mention his own bank and others deeply involved in writing mortgages.

The message wasn't well received. One board member expressed particular skepticism -- Ben Bernanke.

"Where do you think it will be the worst?" Bernanke asked, according to people who attended the meeting, one in a series of sessions the Fed holds with economists.

"I would have to say California," said the economist, Richard Dekaser.

"They have been saying that about California since I bought my first house in 1979," Bernanke replied.

Woops. Apparently "they" were right. Routinely. Not that Bernanke's resume is going to keep the senate from rubber-stamping his bid for a second term as Fed chairman. He did the only thing that matters: left bankers alone and bailed them out when they fucked up. If only we could all be coddled for our incompetence.

Peasants Of The Land Unite

Tis the season:

The World Series champions were hit with a luxury tax of nearly $25.69 million Monday, according to information received by clubs and obtained by The Associated Press.

Bang-up job by Selig to admit there's a problem but do nothing in the way of solving it:

The Yankees' regular payroll -- using 2009 salaries and prorated shares of signing bonuses -- finished at $220 million. That was a drop of $2.5 million from 2008 but more than $77.8 million higher than any other team -- a gap larger than the payrolls of the bottom 11 clubs.

Next stop for Bud: The U.S. senate, where propping up the elite is a noble profession. Or maybe he can serve a term as some sort of college football czar and counsel big school presidents on how to entrench their bowl money monopoly at the expense of mid-majors.

Once Again

This time with feeling:

Surprisingly, the Senator who did the most to emphasize the absurdity of the situation was Mitch McConnell, the Republican minority leader. He recalled the votes on Social Security and Medicare, both of which passed with substantial Republican support. Social Security and Medicare, of course, were government-run programs paid for by straight tax increases. They were far more offensive to conservatives than the current legislation, which funds a mostly-private sector health-care expansion by trimming the budget of Medicare, America's largest single-payer health-care system.

Even as the bills Democrats pursue have become more moderate, the roll calls have become more partisan.

More impressive was the sight of John McCain saying Ted Kennedy wouldn't "appreciate" the bill passing cloture on a party-line vote (which Republicans made sure happened). I'd wager there's a few things Kennedy wouldn't appreciate and one of them was Republicans trying to take full advantage of the timing of his death to derail health care. None of his colleagues across the aisle mentioned respecting his interests or his constituents from Massachusetts. He was, momentarily, just one less vote to worry about.

Before Obama was even sworn-in Republicans had dusted off the '94 playbook and called on former Clinton reform-killing stars like Bill Kristol and Betsy McCaughey to lead their campaign of misinformation, fantastic lies and promises of death that poisoned the well and led people to angrily oppose broader, cheaper access to health care. Doesn't get much weirder than that. More telling was the GOP's decision over the last 15 years to ignore an industry with exploding costs in dire need of reform. Our health care system is what it is today because Republicans blocked reform when out of power and did nothing while in power. McCain can feel free to throw a tantrum. But he's got no answer for his own record of inaction.

The Politics Of Obstructionism

Judging by Mitch McConnell's spin, you'd never guess Republicans were using every parliamentary trick in the book to slow down health care reform:

"If they were proud of this bill they wouldn't be doing it this way. They wouldn't be jamming it through in the middle of the night on the last weekend before Christmas."

Yes, where has the golden age of backroom deals and late night arm twisting provided by Tom Delay gone? Not that I blame Republicans. Their tactics have helped fracture the Democratic Party and sent Obama's approval rating into a tailspin. And that's what matters when raw power is more important to a party than governing. But that also means playing politics with the troops and basic decency toward other senators are a necessary collateral damage when throwing up filibuster after filibuster:

After years of criticizing Democrats for not supporting the troops, just three Republicans supported the military funding.” “Rarely has the Senate seen such a sad statement,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid last night. “Rarely have I seen such brazen irresponsibility. And rarely have our nation's citizens received such little regard from their leaders." At 1:06 am, in fact, 92-year-old Sen. Robert Byrd (D) arrived to cast his vote, O’Donnell reports. The ailing Byrd was brought inside the chamber in a wheelchair, and his colleagues reacted by applauding. During that applause, Byrd raised his hand with a thumbs-up to signal an "aye" vote as he was heard saying, "Shame, shame."

The Mod Squad

Barack Obama took a break from punching hippies in the face over health care to knock some international heads together in Copenhagen:

The deal eventually came together after a dramatic moment in which Mr. Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton burst into a meeting of the Chinese, Indian and Brazilian leaders, according to senior administration officials. Mr. Obama said he did not want them negotiating in secret.

The intrusion led to new talks that cemented central terms of the deal, American officials said.

Xanadu Or Bust

If only Obama had channeled the rage of deadender progressives in his public comments, then Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson would beg for mercy and demand a much stronger public option. Did I get that right? If Obama wasn't weak and ineffective (or if he had the stones of St. Hillary of Clinton) then he could bend the will of a couple senators who would just assume that health care reform drifted away into the ether so they could concentrate on less controversial legislation. Is that what the far left is selling? Never mind senate rules and the unfortunate fact that having the exact number of votes you need means every Senator in the Democratic caucus is a walking filibuster. I guess this is what happens when you're a once-in-an-every-other generation candidate. People figure Obama can turn water into wine and Lieberman into a decent human being.

I need to smoke more drugs just to keep up with the hallucinations coming from the left. Talk about getting the vapors:

Joe Lieberman's reckless decision to blow up last week's compromise has had exactly the impact many of us predicted. Much of the left has flipped into vicious, angry opposition to the bill. Is that because the Medicare buy-in, a good but limited policy, has disappeared from the bill? Ostensibly. But not really. If you don't believe the bill has cost controls, Medicare buy-in was not an answer to your concerns. If you believe the mandate is bad policy, letting the small slice of exchange-users between 55 and 64 choose public insurance did not answer your fears.

Lieberman has tossed the process into chaos. But the short-term satisfactions won't overwhelm the long-term judgments. Lieberman is "point person" because he has appointed himself the 60th senator. Every other member of the Democratic caucus could have done the same, but most all have judged the underlying bill more important than their disagreements with it. Lieberman did the opposite, and there's little evidence that he actually had disagreements with the bill so much as dislike for some of its supporters.

Of the many things I find incredible about this freak out, it's the flimsy rationale that losing a weak-ass public option will turn us all into slaves to insurance corporatism. Unreal.

Blue Dogs

Some things I will never understand:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) muscled a $154 billion jobs bill through the House on Wednesday evening just before Congress departed for a holiday recess. With the vote in serious doubt until seconds before it was gaveled to a close, Pelosi worked the floor furiously, imploring her caucus to stick with her and move the measure through.

The bill passed 217-212, but when the time on the clock expired, it was losing 208-212. A few minutes later, when it hit 214-213 and then 215-213, someone shouted "gavel it!" from the Democratic side. A bill doesn't need the full 218 to pass -- only a simple majority of those voting. The presiding officer took the suggestion and closed the vote.

Not a single Republican approved of the bill.

The slim margin is strong evidence that deficit hawks have momentum in the ideological battle between one camp that demands more spending on job creation and another, dominated by the GOP and Blue Dog Democrats, calling for immediate reductions in the deficit. Even the fact that the money was being redirected from Wall Street couldn't sway 38 Democrats, who voted with the Republicans.

It's rather amazing to watch Democrats reflexively cower when a Republican operative merely whispers "fiscally irresponsible" as if those words ensure electoral disaster. People vote on the economy. And not even that. They vote on the job they have, whether they like it, and whether they think the country is going "in the right direction." Whatever the hell that ephemeral notion of group-think positivity means. What people don't do is consider the deficit's impact on borrowing and the consequential deflationary aspects in relation to international economic trends. At least, they haven't to this point, which helps explain how we've arrived at a $11 trillion national debt. Yet this continues to escape Democrats who allow themselves to be hamstrung by a governing philosophy that Republicans themselves don't bother adhering to when controlling the purse strings.

In recent decades the GOP has routinely demonstrated its inability to manage the federal budget. The atrocities are well documented. That's doubly true for the George W Bush administration, when the GOP found a way to take a thriving economy, plus a federal surplus and nearly turn it into Great Depression 2.0 (check out that chart, which also shows spurring a bit of economic growth, perhaps through a Jobs Bill, would do quite a bit to help rein in the deficit).  Point of fact: Nobody sucks at fiscal responsibility more than the Republican Party. But that doesn't prevent mealymouthed Blue Dogs from trying to shield themselves from not only a false charge, but an empty one:

O'Neill, fired in a shakeup of Bush's economic team in December 2002, raised objections to a new round of tax cuts and said the president balked at his more aggressive plan to combat corporate crime after a string of accounting scandals because of opposition from "the corporate crowd," a key constituency.

O'Neill said he tried to warn Vice President Dick Cheney that growing budget deficits-expected to top $500 billion this fiscal year alone-posed a threat to the economy. Cheney cut him off. "You know, Paul, Reagan proved deficits don't matter," he said, according to excerpts. Cheney continued: "We won the midterms (congressional elections). This is our due." A month later, Cheney told the Treasury secretary he was fired.

Cheney wasn't talking about economic policy and channeling his inner Nouriel Roubini. Deficits. Don't. Matter? Of course they do, at least with regard to long-tern economic strength. What Cheney was talking about is the politics of deficit spending and the fact that voters don't punish politicians for going into the red. What they punish voters for is a bad jobs report. And that's exactly what Blue Dogs tried to ensure by voting against the House's Jobs Bill. There are times, like this, when deficit spending is urgently necessary. And it's moments like this when I figure it isn't worth saving Blue Dogs from themselves.